Climate Change, Methane, COP’s Elephant in the Room
In 2009 I happened to watch a LINK TV documentary about European (Scandinavian, I believe) scientists studying temperature change due to Global Warming. I had missed the beginning, and they were summarizing their projection. First, they saw that the steady straight line temperature increase would cause the permafrost to thaw. (tipping point #1, as I would find out) This would cause methane to be released which is some 28-80 times worse than CO2 (80 initially then it degrades). The temperature increase line started an upward rise.
After about 25 years as I recall this temperature spike warmed the oceans 5.6°F, which caused the vast liquid methane pockets at the bottom of river estuaries to turn to gas (tipping point #2). The temperature curve then took on a parabolic rise. By 2082, as I remember, their model predicted an 18° F temperature rise! They pointed out matter-of-factly that in past geological eras these were ages of mass extinctions.
Very alarming. Hopefully they are wrong. But what if they aren’t?
I realize I have some old college friends that studied astrophysics and went on to have careers in the field, so I email them. One sends me the following link: Permafrost | MIT Climate Portal “ Thawing Permafrost Worsens Climate Change-but We Don’t Know How Much” is the title. Articles include such things as: 1,500 gigatons (GTs) of methane estimated to be stored in the permafrost and methane release could cancel out all gains made to date…
The other works at the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) in Geneva and explains that the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ) is determined by data gathered by the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). He worked specifically in this data relay. He also says that NO HYPOTHESES ARE ALLOWED. So, no surprise, when I look, all the models yield similar results. I am sensing a Convenient Standard Narrative.
I also find out that the Europeans have put a satellite in orbit called Copernicus to measure methane.
I would suggest that the WMO/COP postulate, say, three scenarios of tundra methane release (gradual linear, steeper linear, some exponentiation) and at least acknowledge that more vigorous action would be required. As is, the COP is doing a serious disservice to humanity by not entertaining permafrost methane release and possible scenarios.
E.G COP’s worst case scenario, SSP5-8.5 only takes into account unmitigated CO2 release which would lead to a 7.2F increase by 2100- no tundra methane increase taken into account.
I look up how much GHG (Green House Gas) is being released annually. 37 GTs is what the web says. And methane is initially 80 times worse than CO2. That says that even 1/2 GT of methane per year would double the effect of current CO2 emissions. And that’s just .033% of the 1,500…
And that brings up, is there a tipping point #3: what if all of Antarctica melts? And include Greenland and all the glaciers. Web says ocean rise of 230 feet…
And then, here’s what AI copilot printed out when I typed in; COP ignoring tundra and ocean methane:
“is a critical oversight that may have dire consequences for global climate efforts. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas, is being released in significant quantities from thawing tundra and oceanic methane hydrates. The lack of attention to these sources at international climate conferences, such as COP, undermines the comprehensive approach needed to address climate change effectively. Without targeted strategies to mitigate these emissions, the fight against global warming remains incomplete and potentially ineffective.”
It’s as if humans are an infection and the earth is going to have a serious fever.
Is Humanity in for a serious butt kicking? The documentary I saw may not be so farfetched.
All eyes on Copernicus 5-P data (https://maps.s5p-pal.com/ch4/) . We are living in a very suspenseful time.
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