Climate Change: Methane, COP’s Elephant in the Room

Am I the only one who happened to watch a Link TV documentary back in 2009 of European (Scandinavian, I believe) scientists studying temperature change due to Global Warming (Climate Change not in the vocabulary yet). I had missed the beginning, and they were summarizing their projection. First, they saw that the steady straight line temperature increase would cause the permafrost to thaw. This would cause methane to be released which is some 28-80 times worse than CO2 (80 initially then it degrades). The temperature curve started an upward rise.

After about 25 years as I recall this temperature spike warmed the oceans 5.6°F, which caused the vast liquid methane pockets at the bottom of river estuaries to turn to gas. The temperature curve then took on a parabolic rise.By 2082, as I remember, their model predicted an 18® F temperature rise! They pointed out matter-of-factly that in past geological eras these were ages of mass extinctions.

Very alarming. Hopefully they are wrong. But what if they aren’t?

Under ”methane bomb” on the web I found articles about methane from tundra thawing and ocean floor methane, but none on a “double whammy”. Similarly, for “climate tipping points”.

I decided it was time to visit with a senior climatologist. My questions were: 1. Had he heard of the above report?  2.  What model is COP (climate change Conference of Parties) using?  3. Does it take into account methane release? -the double whammy? And to what extent?

I went down to UCAR (University of Colorado Atmospheric Research). Their office was 3 blocks from my old office, had a cafeteria, and an electric charging station for my car, so I used to have lunch there.

Lo and behold there is a conference of polar climatologists in progress! The receptionist introduces me to the conference organizer, Mike Patterson. I ask him to read the above.

He does not know about the documentary and that report. The COP model, is determined every ten years by the CMIP ( Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ) which is the compilation of many models from a variety of countries. Their prediction is 2.7® F by 2050 and 3.6®-7.2® F by 2100 (variability due to + or – action). I note that all models seem to relatively conform, and that IMPs (independent model projections) are not incorporated.

The methane issue is a “hot topic” Mike says. I gather that the scientists are reluctant to make predictions because they do not have data yet i.e. until permafrost starts releasing methane on a measurable basis.

He also informs me that the Europeans have put a satellite called Copernicus in orbit that measures methane release. It seems that one of the reasons for it is to determine pipeline and extraction leaks, but it will show permafrost increases.

I ask if I can read the above to the conference but am told that they are behind schedule and have a packed agenda. I go up on the balcony and look at the boards put up by the presenters. None are about methane release due to permafrost thawing. To someone like me the subjects are quite esoteric, and they seem to use a lot of acronyms. I note some of the local presenters and call and email them the above with my questions. None reply.

I then realize I have some old college friends that studied astrophysics and went on to have careers in the field, so I email them. Both reply.  One sends me the following link:  Permafrost | MIT Climate Portal  “ Thawing Permafrost Worsens Climate Change-but We Don’t Know How Much” is the title.  Articles include such things as: 1,500 gigatons (GTs) of methane estimated to be stored in the permafrost and methane release could cancel out all gains made to date…

The other works at the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) in Geneva and explains that the CMIP is determined by data gathered by the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). He worked specifically in this data relay. He also says that NO HYPOTHESES ARE ALLOWED.  So, no surprise that all the models yield similar results. I am sensing a Convenient Standard Narrative. He also points out that we have crossed the tipping point of no more permafrost and that it being a tipping point, there is no going back.

I would suggest that the WMO/COP look at scenarios of possible methane release from low to high and at least acknowledge that more vigorous action would be required. As is, the COP is doing a serious disservice to humanity by not entertaining permafrost methane release and possible scenarios.

There are also many things that scientists do not understand about the polar region besides methane release: like; why is it warming twice as fast as the lower latitudes, exploding methane craters in Siberia, streams running rust color from unexpected iron release, and climate change effects on the wildlife (particularly polar bears) to name some.

I look up how much GHG (Green House Gas-getting into these acronyms!) is being released annually. 37 GTs is what the web says. And methane is some 80 times worse than CO2. That says that even 1/2 GT of methane per year would double the effect of current CO2 emissions. And that’s just .033% of the 1,500…

Playing amateur scientist, I wonder what amount of methane per meter of thawing would be produced. I look up the average depth of artic permafrost and do not find a definitive answer as it is quite variable, like 1 to 1,000 meters, so what % could be released seems difficult to calculate. One thing is sure though, each year the amount will increase as well as the temperature.

And then what about Antarctica? The latest:  ‘Doomsday Glacier’ Scientists say there are signs that “vigorous melting” is currently underway at an Antarctic glacier that has the potential to raise sea levels 2 feet worldwide threatening low-lying island nations as well as vulnerable coastlines such as Florida. Thwaites Glacier has been dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier” because of that threat. The glacier also acts as a dam for other ice in West Antarctica, which could raise sea levels 10 feet if released. The report points to warm seawater streaming beneath the glacier as the main cause of the accelerated melt.

And that brings up, is there a tipping point #3: what if all of Antarctica melts? And include Greenland and all the glaciers. Web says ocean rise of 230 feet…

Alarmed yet??  The documentary I saw may not be so far-fetched.

All eyes on Copernicus 5-P data (https://maps.s5p-pal.com/ch4/) . We are living in a very suspenseful time.

jeffreymanyhats.org

NEXT: PART II Could Climate Change lead to World Peace?